The surprising, if not unexpected, results of the recent Ekiti governorship election immediately produced two contradictory reactions. On the one hand, the Peoples Democratic Party instantly began to celebrate its candidate’s victory over the incumbent governor and candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Dr. Kayode Fayemi. On the other hand, the APC immediately went into mourning, although still courageous enough to encourage its candidate to concede defeat.
These contradictory reactions have heightened the preparations for the August 9, 2014, governorship election in Osun State, where the candidates of both political parties are the leading contenders, with the APC candidate, Governor Rauf Aregbesola, also currently in power. Although the demographic, social, economic, and political situations differ significantly between Osun and Ekiti, the PDP is boastfully hopeful that the electoral feat achieved in Ekiti would be repeated in Osun.
The more the PDP leaders exude confidence in winning the Osun election, the more worried the APC leaders are. This worry is heightened by the inexplicable confidence exhibited by the PDP candidate, Iyiola Omisore, and his campaign team, despite the groundswell of support for Aregbesola by various demographic groups.
This could only prompt the APC leaders to re-examine various allegations of electoral manipulation in the Ekiti polls. Meanwhile, various commentators had speculated that the Ekiti election was probably rigged in favour of the PDP candidate, Ayodele Fayose: How could an incumbent governor lose so badly, conceding all 18 local governments, including his own, to the PDP victor? How come virtually all elected APC leaders in the state lost their local governments in the same election? Could the theory of “stomach infrastructure” or “amala politics” attributed to Fayose explain his scale of victory, when, in fact, Fayemi’s campaign also distributed rice and even served cooked food, as shown on a YouTube video?
These questions and post-election accounts by some voters are now coalescing into more and more doubts about the authenticity of the Ekiti election. As a result, a consensus seems to have emerged among the APC leaders that the results should be challenged in court, not only because of complaints about the electoral process but also because of alleged manipulation of the election results.
Here’s how Segun Oni, the APC’s Deputy National Chairman (South), put it recently: “What happened in Ekiti State was a new dimension in election rigging in Nigeria. We are therefore ready to challenge the Ekiti election result in court.” Oni’s statement was reinforced by the Ekiti governor’s wife, Bisi Fayemi, who indicated that, “In due course, the full and real story of how the Ekiti election of June 21 was manipulated from source will be revealed”.
The reticence of the APC leaders in revealing the details of the alleged electoral manipulations is understandable, if, in fact, they plan to challenge the election results in court. However, if any lessons are to be learnt by the Osun electorate about the alleged manipulations, this is the time for them to know what exactly happened in Ekiti. If, indeed, the APC truly plans to challenge the election results in court, then it should do so immediately.
However, in taking such an action, the party stands accused of speaking from both sides of the mouth–challenging the results of an election it already conceded. Losing the court battle eventually would be more than double jeopardy.
More importantly, exit polling is a useful tool in questioning the official results. This happened in the 2000 election in Yugoslavia, when Slobodan Milosevic claimed that he had defeated Vojislav Kostunica. However, the accuracy of the reported count was questioned as exit polls suggested otherwise. In the end, Milosevic was forced to concede defeat.
In spite of the various problems, Nigerian democracy is growing, if only at a snail’s pace. We added the feather of public debate among candidates to our democracy wing. Reliable opinion polls should be the next feather.
